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Westpac Leading Index Stabilising But Signals Soft Growth

AUSTRALIA DATA

The December 6-month annualised Westpac leading indicator, which leads detrended growth by 3 to 9 months, was flat after rising 0.2% in November. The index itself moved sideways over Q4 signalling growth steadied (see chart). And Westpac notes that the improvement in the 6-month rate shows that economic momentum is stabilising rather than picking up, and that it remains soft. The shift into positive territory has been driven by stronger commodity prices, especially iron ore.

  • The index fell 0.04% on the month after rising 0.07%.
  • H2 2023 saw a boost mainly from commodity prices but also from the financial components and the stabilisation in consumer confidence also helped. But the moderation in hours worked, soft dwelling approvals and US IP have weighed on the leading index.
Australia Westpac leading index vs real GDP y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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