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Westpac Shifts Rate Hike Call To February 2024


The local bank has updated its RBNZ view post this morning's Q3 CPI data. It no longer expects a November rate hike. It has shifted this view to February next year. ANZ made a similar shift earlier today.

  • Westpac notes "On balance, we still don’t think the job has been done. Core inflation pressures, especially those related to domestic prices pressures, are still running at high levels. The onus is on the data to show a strong and sustained downward trend in core inflation if we are to see inflation back in the range in 2024 or 2025. We have pencilled in a 25bp OCR increase in at the February 2024 Statement. We still see some reasonably strong domestic inflation pressures out there – most notably from the historic population boost coming from net migration which is yet to show any signs of easing. We think that the summer period will show the strengthening in the housing market that the RBNZ indicated it was still not sure about in its October Monetary Policy Review. Those trends will add to medium term inflation pressures and likely eventually force the RBNZ’s hand in 2024."

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