Free Trial
CHINA PRESS

Auto Market Sentiment Optimistic, Feb Sales To Rise

CHINA RATES

China Repo Rates Fall On Thursday

CNH

CNY Fixing - Still Close To Neutral

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

Westpac: Signs That Employment Momentum Has Eased

AUSTRALIA

Ahead of today's labour market report Westpac note that “the 900 increase in employment in September was the third consecutive disappointing print from the Labour Force Survey. With a three-month average increase in employment of just 200, compared to working age population growth average of 17.4K per month over the same period, it does appear that the Australian labour market stalled heading into the last quarter of the year.”

  • “Consumer unemployment expectations remain at historically sound levels but nonetheless, they are 17.8% higher in the last two months suggesting households are not as confident about jobs as they were, a sign employment momentum has eased. Business surveys remain upbeat and vacancies at historical highs so the question is: are we at full employment resulting in a lack of suitable candidates?”
  • “We can’t be sure if that is the case but we do know that the lack of suitable labour is a critical constraint on activity.”
  • “Given the rounding only just kept the unemployment rate at 3.5%, we would argue that September was a softer than expected update on the labour market.”
  • “Holding participation flat in October, our forecast 15K gain in employment is not enough to prevent the unemployment rate rounding up to 3.6%. We see there is a risk of a softer gain in employment in October while participation can remain robust, hence we see upside risk to our unemployment rate.”
232 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.

Ahead of today's labour market report Westpac note that “the 900 increase in employment in September was the third consecutive disappointing print from the Labour Force Survey. With a three-month average increase in employment of just 200, compared to working age population growth average of 17.4K per month over the same period, it does appear that the Australian labour market stalled heading into the last quarter of the year.”

  • “Consumer unemployment expectations remain at historically sound levels but nonetheless, they are 17.8% higher in the last two months suggesting households are not as confident about jobs as they were, a sign employment momentum has eased. Business surveys remain upbeat and vacancies at historical highs so the question is: are we at full employment resulting in a lack of suitable candidates?”
  • “We can’t be sure if that is the case but we do know that the lack of suitable labour is a critical constraint on activity.”
  • “Given the rounding only just kept the unemployment rate at 3.5%, we would argue that September was a softer than expected update on the labour market.”
  • “Holding participation flat in October, our forecast 15K gain in employment is not enough to prevent the unemployment rate rounding up to 3.6%. We see there is a risk of a softer gain in employment in October while participation can remain robust, hence we see upside risk to our unemployment rate.”