Westpac Still See Some Scope For 10-Year EFP Widening

Westpac note that "given that the RBA will extend its QE in 2021, the physical bond market should be anchored at this maturity in both outright and curve terms. In addition, with positive vaccine news, and the potential for further stimulus packages to support the global economy, 2021 is expected to be dominated by a bear steepening thematic. In our view the swap curve will be better positioned to reflect these global risk rewards and as such the 10yr EFP should keep widening. Of course, we live in a yield-reduced world and, with central banks taking the volatility out of funding rates, carry-related trades are likely to remain in vogue for some time. At the moment that favours the longer maturities, so we would think that any swap spread widening will be capped for now. Our best "guess" is around 5bp at most. The 3-10yr box is already back to its steepest levels since the pandemic began and, if the rise in yields slows, then there is scope for some tactical receive-side to slow the near term widening."