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CHINA: Westpac suggest that "China's off'l PMIs highlighted domestic resilience
in Sep, even as external demand softened further. The Caixin survey similarly
highlighted deteriorating external demand. Furthermore, the service sector is
showing resilience in employment, with Sep in line with the 12 month avg. More
broadly on the services sector, conditions were reported as robust. It is likely
that the consumer strength seen in the H118 has carried into Q3. As we move into
Q4, arguably the domestic econ will also receive support from gov't authorities
as they become more accommodative to offset the ill effects of the U.S. tariffs.
Regarding the tariffs, we won't see their full effect until early '19. This is
because the 10% tariff rate on $200bn of imports will be increased to 25% on Jan
01. Further, the threatened 3rd wave of tariffs on ~$267bn of imports from China
to the U.S. is yet to be introduced - although the trigger exists after China
retaliated against the US' $200bn tariff round. All told, the deceleration in
China's PMIs to date is consistent with the softening of global trade. A tariff
effect will come, but not until early '19. Ahead, the services sector and
domestic economy more broadly should show resilience."