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Westpac write that their "view that....>

AUSSIE BONDS
AUSSIE BONDS: Westpac write that their "view that the RBA will cut 3 times in
'19 is not fully priced-in & should provide some ongoing support to the front
end. The longer maturities are more vulnerable to a bearish correction within
the range from US 10yr bonds. We are small net sellers this week but not overly
bearish & look to buy 3yr bond futures on dips < 98.80. We are getting closer to
putting on an RBA-led curve steepener, but it remains too early. We will need to
see how effective the delivery of rate cuts are before the recent flattening
trend is sustainably reversed. If the 3-10yr futures spread were to move to
40bps, we would enter a tactical steepener ahead of next Tuesday's RBA meeting.
BEIs are low but are awaiting confirmation that RBA policy is effective, we
think they will eventually trend higher from current levels. It is too early to
buy BEIs, however it would provide good participation in any global outright
sell-off. With RBA rate cuts expected in June, Aug & Nov, there are reasons for
the AU/US 10yr spread to continue to perform. Further outperformance will be
slow. The next major move will most likely occur on a further RBA-driven dip in
the currency."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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