Westpac writes "in New Zealand there....>

NEW ZEALAND: Westpac writes "in New Zealand there was a clear economic slowdown

in late 2018, and it was deeper than we expected. But we expect momentum will be

regained this year. Petrol prices have unwound most of their previous spike,

which will allow bruised household wallets to heal. Government spending and a

successful farm sector will be the other key drivers. That said, we retain our

long-held view that the economy will slow again in the early 2020s. One major

reason is that we are about to hit peak construction. Population growth is

slowing more sharply than previously understood, and earthquake reconstruction

is winding down. We expect residential construction to peak in 2019 and fall

slightly from there. That will be a real change from the 2010s, when

homebuilding activity more than doubled. Tying it all together, we expect the

economy to remain in a fairly neutral position overall, so we are forecasting no

change in the OCR for the coming three years."