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Westpac writes "in New Zealand there....>
NEW ZEALAND: Westpac writes "in New Zealand there was a clear economic slowdown
in late 2018, and it was deeper than we expected. But we expect momentum will be
regained this year. Petrol prices have unwound most of their previous spike,
which will allow bruised household wallets to heal. Government spending and a
successful farm sector will be the other key drivers. That said, we retain our
long-held view that the economy will slow again in the early 2020s. One major
reason is that we are about to hit peak construction. Population growth is
slowing more sharply than previously understood, and earthquake reconstruction
is winding down. We expect residential construction to peak in 2019 and fall
slightly from there. That will be a real change from the 2010s, when
homebuilding activity more than doubled. Tying it all together, we expect the
economy to remain in a fairly neutral position overall, so we are forecasting no
change in the OCR for the coming three years."
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