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What Is Priced?

RBA

Sell-side consensus is firmly pegged on a 15bp cash rate hike in June after the RBA’s hawkish tweaks in its April statement. Several of the sell-side names have noted that a May hike cannot be ruled out (as it comes post-Q122 CPI), with Societe Generale & seasoned RBA-watcher Terry McCrann now looking for a May hike, even though the RBA’s preference is seemingly to move in June.

  • STIR markets remain much more aggressive, with a non-negligible chance of a May move (~11bp of tightening) priced and 32bp of tightening priced come the end of the Bank’s June meeting. Note that a little over 200bp of tightening is priced through year-end.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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