What Is The Market Pricing Over The Next Year?

Note that the 1-Year OIS metric now sits just above 0.21%. While that does not quite represent a full 15bp hike from the current 10bp target re: the cash rate, it is over 18bp above the current effective cash rate, which stands at 0.03% (this has been the level in play for virtually all of this calendar year), meaning that a 15bp hike is comfortably baked in by the end of '22 according to this measure of market pricing (assuming a similar differential between effective and target cash rates holds true after a 15bp rate hike). IBs covering the same horizon are of course illiquid, but the hiking path priced as of yesterday's settlement is much more aggressive than that implied by OIS. It is also worth noting that the IRZ1/Z2 spread hovers just shy of 100bp, the steepest level witnessed for the front 12-month IR calendar spread since '10.