MNI BRIEF: Fed Banks Unanimous On Steady Discount Rate-Minutes

MNI BRIEF: Powell - Immigration Has Neutral Inflation Impact Over Long Run

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, July 9

MNI BRIEF: Mexico Inflation 4.98% In June, Above Consensus

CORRECTED-MNI: China H2 Steel Outlook Subdued

MNI BOK WATCH: Slowing Inflation Puts Q4 Cut In Sight

US Treasury Auction Calendar

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 12/14-Year Bund Auction on Wednesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction On Wednesday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

What's priced in?

STIR FUTURES
  • Euribor and Eurodollar futures are both down by 1-2 ticks across most of the strip while SONIA is
  • For the ECB, markets price in around 73bp for today's meeting and a cumulative 133bp by year-end (so pricing around a 1/3 probability of a second 75bp hike in December after almost fully pricing a 75bp hike today. Around 216bp is priced in over the next 12 months, implying a deposit rate of 2.75-3.00% around 35bp lower than the peak seen a week ago.
  • For the Fed, markets price around 76bp for next week's meeting and 133bp by year-end. This pricing is very similar to that of the ECB. However, into 2023 a slower pace of hiking is priced into markets with 175bp of cumulative hikes priced by March and a peak of 178bp priced by May before the curve inverts. 37bp of cuts are then priced from the peak by end-2023.
  • For the BOE, 76bp is priced for next week. Through the first half of October market pricing had settled in a 100-120bp range, even after the BOE had explicitly ruled out an intermeeting hike. A cumulative 140bp is priced by the December meeting (down over 100bp from the post-"Growth Plan" peak). Terminal rates are seen around 268bp higher than now i.e. below 5.00%, down from a peak of above 6.25%.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.