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UK: Week Ahead

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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT
  • On the data front today we have just US PPI and Italian industrial production today - only the latter is likely to be actively watched by markets but market reaction to the past couple of PPI releases has not been typical.
  • We are more focused on Brainard's nomination hearing. As one of the more dovish members of the FOMC it will be interesting to see how she responds to questions about the near-term policy outlook with CPI at 7%. Looking at what's priced in now, there is around an 85% probability of a March Fed hike (down from 90% post-Mester highs) and around 3.5 hikes priced by end-2022 (down from a 3.75 peak post-Mester).
  • The dollar has suffered as STIR markets have reduced the probability of the number of hikes by the end of 2022, but these moves appear outsized compared to the moves we have seen in STIR markets.
  • Elsewhere we will see continued media coverage of Boris Johnson's position as UK Prime Minister. He apologised yesterday for attending a party at Number 10 during lockdown 1 when there were strict limits on meeting up. Most of his cabinet has rallied around him, but other senior Tories are starting to make less-than-satisfied noises. His position appears to be on a knife-edge at least until the official inquiry into the parties (which is due in around a week).
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