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What to Watch

MARKET INSIGHT
  • Week kicks off with modest number of data points, headline MNI The Chicago Business Barometer™ at 0945ET (64.3 rev, 61.8 est)
    • Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (8.1, 8.5) at 1030ET, same time as:
    • NY Fed buy-op: Tsy 2.25Y-4.5Y, appr $8.425B vs. $6.325B prior;
    • US Tsy $60B 13W, $51B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET
  • Fed speak picks up:
    • SF Fed Daly (non-voter 2022-23; dove) Reuters live event at 1130ET
    • KC Fed George (voter 2022, hawk) on economy at 1240ET
  • Later in the session: President Joe Biden is hosting the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani at the White House at 1400ET. A deal with Qatar could mitigate a global gas crisis if tensions with Russia are not resolved and Biden is expected to push the Sheikh to increase supply to Europe.
  • Market watch: return of more hawkish pricing after MN Fed Kashkari cooled debate somewhat last Friday. Traders watching 2s10s yield curve as it dips below 60.0 first time since Oct 2020.
  • Standard Chartered strategists forecast possible yield curve inversion "we doubt that Fed messaging or actions can prevent the 2Y/10Y curve dipping into inverted territory by year-end".

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