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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT

It's another big day for data. Yesterday we saw Spanish HICP surprise 6 tenths higher and German HICP higher by 9 tenths.

  • We are due French flash HICP data at 7:45GMT / 8:45CET with Italian and pan-Eurozone data due tomorrow morning. The market is very much expecting French HICP data to come in higher than expected here, so a print in line with the stale consensus or below would be a big deal for the market.
  • The French print is likely to set the tone for early trading. Note that German 10-year Bund yields have moved (marginally) positive following yesterday's data while money markets are now pricing in a total of 25bp of ECB hikes in 2022 now.
  • Also this morning we have PMI data, most notable for Spain and Italy which did not have flash releases. The highlights of the US data will all be released at 15:00GMT / 16:00CET today with the ISM manufacturing released alongside JOLTS data.
  • There don't appear to be any scheduled Fed speakers for today at present while ECB / BOE are in their blackout phases ahead of their policy announcements on Thursday this week.
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