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What to Watch: Geopol Risk Weighs on Policy Pricing; St of Union

MARKET INSIGHT
Continued risk-off support in FI markets on heavy volumes (TYM2>1.1M) overnight as Russia invasion of Ukraine enters day six. US Tsy 30YY falls to 2.0681% low currently at 2.1011% -0.0600 , 10YY 1.7122%L, currently at 1.7514% -.0736.
  • Global application of sanctions on Russia growing: more calls for Russian banks to be barred from SWIFT system: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirms EU seeking to "turn off the tap on Russia’s and Putin’s war," by removing Russian banks from SWIFT system and halting transactions of the Russian central bank. Dealers suspending trade in Russian financials/derivatives (Deutsche Boerse).
  • Surge in risk-off buying is squelching market pricing of central bank rate hikes (Eurodlr futures still see 25bp hike on March 16; ECB calls to hike have been shelved as growth stalls). Likely to change narrative for Fed Chair Powell at semi-annual mon/pol testimony to House Financial Services Comm on Wed 1000ET; Feb employ data Friday, Fed blackout start midnight.
  • Economic data:
    • 0945 Markit US Manufacturing PMI (57.5, 57.5) at 0945ET
    • At 1000ET:
    • Construction Spending MoM (0.2%, 0.1%)
    • ISM Manufacturing (57.6, 58.0); Prices Paid (76.1, 77.8)
    • ISM New Orders (57.9, --); ISM Employment (54.5, --)
  • Fed Speakers at 1400ET:
    • Atlanta Fed Bostic, business uncertainty survey discussion, Q&A
    • Cleveland Fed Mester, open remarks inflation conf
  • US Pres Biden State of the Union Address at 2100ET
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