What to watch

Today the focus will be on talks between Russia and Ukraine, although expectations are fairly low and the likelihood of a de-escalation seems rather remote in the short-term.

• Outside of this we will receive final services PMI prints (and first prints from Spain and Italy) as well as US services ISM, factory orders, weekly jobless claims and final prints of durable goods. None are expected to be particularly market moving.
• Powell is due to deliver part 2 of his testimony to the Senate today. He steered towards a 25bp March hike but noted that if infation did not start to move lower 50bp hikes could not be ruled out later this year. This is in line with a sources piece from our Policy team yesterday (see the full story here).
• In reaction to Powell's comments we saw a steepening of the Eurodollar strip and the moves lower have largely held overnight. The Euribor strip was also pulled lower but has largely retraced much of the move while SONIA futures closed at their lows of the day.
• Elsewhere we have the Accounts of the February ECB meeting (but that is largely stale as it was held prior to the Ukraine invasion) and Fed's Barkin and Williams (the latter after the European close), BoC's Macklem, ECB's de Cos & Riksbank's Skingsley.