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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT
  • Inflation remains the big buzzword in the markets and for central bankers, and so this morning's flash releases of French, Italian and Portuguese HICP will be closely monitored after the big upside surprises seen in Spanish and German prints yesterday (and the ensuing repricing of market ECB rate hike expectations that at one point saw 50bp almost fully priced by October (now back to 44bp at writing).
  • The biggest story overnight concerned a large potential release of oil from the US's SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve). This would incresae supply on the market and has caused Crude and WTI to fall by $4-5/bbl at the time of writing (off the overnight lows). Any further developments to this story will be closely watched, too.
  • We have already had the final UK print of Q4 GDP where consumption and investment were revised lower, but GDP revised higher due to a much smaller than expected current account deficit.
  • We also have a slew of US data: personal income / spending, PCE, weekly claims data and the MNI Chicago PMI.

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