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What to watch

  • Markets are continuing to adjust to yesterday's FOMC Minutes where the pace of proposed balance sheet runoff was probably a bit higher than expected. And when combined with the language surrounding "one or more 50bp increases," led to more concerns over the growth outlook than rates. This explains the reaction we have seen in Treasuries, which have moved above yesterday's range in overnight trading while the Eurodollar strip is also higher as markets price in a bit more work being done by the balance sheet than rate hikes over the cycle.
  • Looking ahead we will receive the ECB Accounts of their monpol meeting this afternoon, and given the surprisingly more hawkish tilt at the March meeting, these will be closely watched too. Any hints on how soon next steps could come and whether there is any scope to bring forward any expected policy moves are likely to be analysed.
  • We will also hear from Fed's Bullard, Bostic and Evans as well as BOE's Pill (although the latter is just giving opening remarks at a conference for 15 minutes - so may not address much if anything on monpol).

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