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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT

It's a packed day with plenty of speakers due today as well as the release of the FOMC Minutes.

  • The morning session will see ECB's Rehn (8:00), Panetta (8:00), Holzmann (8:40), Lagarde (9:00), de Cos (10:35), Lane (10:45) and Knot (10:45) all make appearances (all times BST). Given Lagarde's explicit blog post on near-term policy, the market will probably be looking for more clues on the risks of further action and the more medium-term outlook. Note that yesterday Villeroy suggested the refi rate would be back close to the neutral rate of 1-2% next year.
  • The Fed Minutes later will be watched for any further views on the terminal rates, the likelihood of any 75bp hikes and the triggers for slowdown to 25bp hikes.
  • On the data front, we also have Swedish confidence data and US durable goods.
  • BOE's Tenreyro is also due to appear as a panelist at the Bocconi University conference in memory of Alberto Alesina at 16:15BST.
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