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What to Watch: May FOMC Minutes, Durables/Cap-Goods, Tsy Supply

MARKET INSIGHT

Rates trading firmer ahead the opening bell, Bonds extending top end of range as 30s back near early Tue's highs, 30YY has fallen to 2.9316% low, yield curves unwinding late Tue's steepening (2s10s -4.395 at 22.171).

  • Headline: May FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 1400ET. Credit Suisse analysts expect "minutes to show officials preferred front-loading rate hikes to get policy to neutral by year-end before reevaluating their stance. The minutes should show that officials would keep tightening policy until they see clear evidence of slower inflation, and won't hesitate to raise rates above neutral even if it meant a somewhat higher unemployment rate."
  • Economic data kicks off at 0830ET:
    • Durable Goods Orders (1.1%, 0.6%); ex-trans (1.4%, 0.5%)
    • Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (1.3%, 0.5%); Ship Nondef Ex Air (0.4%, 0.5%)
  • Fed Speak: Johns Hopkins commencement address by Fed Gov Brainard at 1215ET unlikely to be a market mover, no Q&A
  • Tsy auctions:
    • US Tsy $32B 2Y note FRN re-open(91282CEL1) w/ $30B 119D bills at 1130ET
    • US Tsy $48B 5Y note auction (91282CET4) at 1300ET
  • Geopol risk: Ukraine Pres Zelenskyy Warns Of 'Extremely Difficult' Situation In Donbas: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned of an 'extremely difficult' situation in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine as Russia mounts one of its largest offensives of the war to date.

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