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What to Watch: Fed Speak, GDP, PCE, Pending Home Sales, 7Y Sale

MARKET INSIGHT

Rates trading mixed ahead the opening bell, 2s-10s outpacing mildly weaker Bonds, 10s off highs (10YY fell to 2.7023% low), as yield curves resume bull steepening

(2s10s +2.771 at 27.491; 5s10s off inversion at 3.967 +1.697).

  • Carry-over support for stocks (ESM2 +27.25 at 4,004.0) after minutes showed no discussion of larger rate hikes. Not much gleaned from minutes that hasn't already been said, perhaps today's Fed speakers will provide some insight:
    • Fed Gov Brainard on digital assets w/ House panel at 1200ET
    • SF Fed Daly on CNBC's The Exchange at 1300ET
  • Economic data kicks off at 0830ET:
    • Weekly Claims (218k, 215k); Continuing Claims (1.317M, 1.310M)
    • GDP Price Index (8.0%, 8.0%); Annualized QoQ (-1.4%, -1.3%)
    • Personal Consumption (2.7%, 2.8%)
    • Core PCE QoQ (5.2%, 5.2%), followed by
    • Pending Home Sales MoM (-1.2%, -2.0%); YoY (-8.9%, -8.0%) 1000ET
    • Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (25, 18) at 1100ET
  • Tsy auctions:
    • US Tsy $35B 4W and $30B 8W bills at 1130ET
    • US Tsy $42B 7Y note auction (91282CES6) at 1300ET
  • Geopol risk: BBC: No EU Ambassadors Meeting Tomorrow On Oil Embargo: Jessica Parker at BBC News tweets: "Hearing EU ambassadors won't meet tomorrow as had been mooted. So it's all down to Sunday's coreper discussion ahead of EUCO. Oil embargo unresolved & some diplomats questioning whether this extraordinary European Council was really a good idea"
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