CANADA JULY CPI +2.5% YOY, SLOWEST SINCE MARCH 2021

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, Aug 20

China Repo Rates Rise On Tuesday

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY236.6 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1325 Tues; +2.12% Y/Y

MNI: US REDBOOK: AUG STORE SALES +4.8% V YR AGO MO

MNI: US AUG PHILADELPHIA FED NONMFG INDEX -25.1

MNI: CANADA JUL CPI INFLATION +0.4% M/M, +2.5% YY

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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MARKET INSIGHT
  • Core fixed income has moved mildly higher going into the European open as Shanghai ordered a partial lockdown to conduct mass COVID-19 testing while Beijing also introduced Covid controls in the Chaoyang district of Beijing. After drifting lower earlier in the session this is putting core fixed income broadly flat versus yesterday's close.
  • However, the main focus today will switch back to the ECB, where its monetary policy statement is due for release at 12:45BST / 13:45CET followed by its press conference at 13:30BST / 14:30CET. The immediate focus will be on the scheduled end date of asset purchases and the telegraphing of future rate hikes. Lagarde's blog post implied that there would be 25bp hikes in July and September and the focus will be both on whether the ECB leaves wiggle room to hike by 50bp at any point, and what the outlook post-September looks like.
  • The other big story this morning is the fire at the Texas LNG export terminal. As we discussed here, this could have an impact on filling European gas storage facilities ahead of the winter and hence have a lasting impact on European/UK gas prices and hence inflation in the region. We will be watching for any further headlines regarding any updates on how long the terminal is likely to be shut down (3 weeks is the current estimate). Any change to this estimate could have an impact on European/UK energy inflation over the coming months.
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