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UK: Week Ahead

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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT
  • This morning sees plenty of tier 2 data from Europe (final reading of Spain HICP, Italy IP and the BOE/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey). However, the market will be watching to see how many ECB policymakers make appearances and whether they give any new colour to yesterday's decision. Villeroy has already spoken while Holzmann is also due to speak this morning. Lagarde and Nagel are due to make appearances this afternoon.
  • The focus later today will switch to US CPI - the main scheduled event of the day. Consensus has headline CPI inflation rising +0.7% M/M from +0.3% M/M as energy rebounds with large rises seen in both gasoline and the less heavily weighted gas component. Core inflation is seen dipping to +0.5% M/M (av 0.4%) from the surprisingly strong +0.57% M/M in April, in part as airfares slow from their record 19% M/M rise. Few categories are expected to materially accelerate but instead could maintain similar strength. As has been the case under this recent Fed guidance of 2x50bp hikes, greater focus will be on implications for the rate path further out determined by the breadth of sequential inflation and changes in the particularly sticky rent components. For our full CPI Preview including 10 sell side summaries click here.
  • Elsewhere this afternoon we will see the Canadian labour market report as well as Michigan confidence data.
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