FREELAND: CANADA WON'T ESCALATE OR BACK DOWN ON US TRADE FIGHT

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 8/13/28/50-Week BTF Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.125% Jul-29 Gilt Due on Tuesday

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT
  • It's a busy week with the Fed and Bank of England both announcing their policy decisions. At the time of writing markets are fully pricing a 50bp hike for the Fed (with around a 20% probability of a 75bp hike) and fully pricing 25bp for the BOE (with around a 60% probability of a 50bp hike).
  • We have already received UK April activity data that disappointed, coming in at -0.3%M/M (+0.1%M/M was expected). This was largely driven by a ramp down in Test and Trace activity, so is not quite as bad as the headline numbers would suggest but this also represented the first time since January 2021 that all the major components fell.
  • There is not too much on today's calendar other than the publication of the bill to scrap parts of the Northern Ireland protocol that is due to be published this afternoon. Ahead of this, Foreign Secretary Truss is expected to speak to European Commission VP Sefcovic. This follows comments from NI Secretary Brandon Lewis over the weekend that he was confident the changes would be lawful.
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