MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, Sept 10

MNI BRIEF:China To Resolve EV Disputes With EU Via Negotiation

MNI BRIEF: Better August Insovency Data No Guide To Trend- IWH

MNI BRIEF: China Aug Exports Up 8.7% Y/Y, Surplus $91.0 Bln

MNI BRIEF: China August Crude Oil Imports Increase From July

CHINA AUG EXPORTS +8.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +6.6% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

US NFIB AUG SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 91.2

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU, IT Syndis; NE, UK, DE Due Tuesday

MNI: SPAIN JUL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION -0.4% Y/Y; -0.4% M/M

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

UK: Week Ahead

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MARKET INSIGHT
  • Overnight, we have moved off the lows seen in core fixed income towards the end of yesterday's session, we markets are still pricing in considerably more hikes (and hence higher yields) than Friday's close.
  • We have already received some data this morning with UK labour market data seeing wages higher than expected excluding bonuses, but bonus payments disappointed, while the rest of the survey showed a continued tight labour market. There was little reaction in the pound. Elsewhere, Swedish inflation data was higher than expected, primarily driven higher by goods prices. EURSEK spiked lower, but has since recovered.
  • Today's calendar also sees the German ZEW survey and US PPI due for release.
  • However, markets are already looking ahead to tomorrow's FOMC meeting. June’s FOMC meeting is likely to deliver the previously-promised 50bp hike, but the market reaction to May’s inflation report significantly raised the bar to a hawkish meeting outcome. Indeed, we have seen a few sellside names now start to look for 75bp hikes this week (Barclays, BNY Mellon, JPM, GS, Nomura). The Dot Plot will signal a more hawkish rate path than had been expected a few weeks ago, but it would be surprising if it came close to confirming market rate hike pricing. Backed by the Dot Plot, Chair Powell is likely to signal that 50bp hikes are the base case in July and September, but is unlikely to pre-commit beyond that. For the full MNI Fed Preview click here.
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