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MARKET INSIGHT
  • The US employment report will be the undoubted highlight of today's session. Consensus sees nonfarm payrolls rising 268k in June as the pace eases further from the 390k in May but remains well above average growth of 164k through 2019, with wage growth and the u/e rate unchanged from May. Rising growth concerns could see focus on the composition of payrolls growth, adding to the familiar focus on labour market tightness. We think that we would need to see a very weak report to materially shift expectations for the July meeting (70bp is currently price) but there is more two-way risk for meetings further out, and the dollar could see some decent moves from the print, too.
  • Outside of this, focus will remain on politics with more UK MPs expected to throw their hats into the rings (or indeed rule themselves out) from the upcoming leadership race. Given how open the race is, we are likely to see little market reactions at this stage - unless expectations of a caretaker PM other than Johnson grow.
  • Focus in Japan is on the shooting of former PM Abe. The latest reports indicate he is in a "grave" condition and Japanese markets look to assess any policy implications with the yen having benefitted from safe haven flows.
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