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What to Watch: Weak German Sentiment Carries Over

MARKET INSIGHT

Strong US rates took cues from German Bunds in early London trade, rally on weak ZEW current Conditions -45.8. Tsys back near last week's pre-FOMC minutes levels with 30YY near 3.10% (3.1140% last, -0.0604).

  • Robust volumes (TYU2>420k) as yield curves bull flatten/extend inversion: 2s10s -2.695 at -11.214, 2s5s -2.128 at -4.402.
  • No significant data until CPI on Wednesday. However, Richmond Fed President Barkin will discuss the "recession question" at a Rotary Club of Charlotte luncheon today at 1230ET, no text but Q&A w/ audience and media.
  • Stocks weaker, but off lows: ESU2 -18.25 at 3838.5; Crude extended sell-off soft global demand report from OPEC, WTI -4.90 at 99.20; Gold +1.47 at 1735.43.
  • Tsy Auctions:
    • US Tsy $34B 52W bills at 1130ET
    • US Tsy $33B 10Y Note auction re-open (91282CEP2) at 1300ET
  • Modest incoming corporate debt issuance:
    • $Benchmark World Bank5Y (IBRD) SOFR+40
  • Geopol: No Discussion Of Renewal Of Ukraine Peace Talks: Wires reporting comments from Kremlin spox Dmitri Peskov stating that there has been 'no discussion of a renewal of Ukraine peace talks'.
  • Peskov also confirms news reports from yesterday that President Vladimir Putin will meet with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on 19 July in Tehran.
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