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MARKET INSIGHT

After Friday's huge fixed income rally, driven by recession concerns on the back of some sub-50 PMI prints in Europe and then later by a sub-50 US services PMI print, core fixed income is off of Friday's closing levels as Europe starts to get into the office.

  • Given the importance of the German PMI data in Friday's move, the release of the IFO survey at 9:00BST / 10:00CET this morning will be the key scheduled event of the morning session. Belgian business confidence this afternoon might also be watched for any confirmation of the increasing probability of recession in the Eurozone.
  • Also given the focus on the prospects for a US recession there will likely be more attention than usual on the Chicago Fed and Dallas Fed indicators.
  • The only other notable data release today will be the CBI industrial trends survey. And also from the UK we will see a televised debate on the BBC this evening between the final two in the race to be the next PM - Truss and Sunak - at 21:00BST / 22:00CET.
  • Alongside these data, the market will continue to have one eye on this week's FOMC meeting, with the majority of analysts expecting another 75bp hike. Markets are fully pricing this in with a 10-20% probability of a larger 100bp hike priced.
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After Friday's huge fixed income rally, driven by recession concerns on the back of some sub-50 PMI prints in Europe and then later by a sub-50 US services PMI print, core fixed income is off of Friday's closing levels as Europe starts to get into the office.

  • Given the importance of the German PMI data in Friday's move, the release of the IFO survey at 9:00BST / 10:00CET this morning will be the key scheduled event of the morning session. Belgian business confidence this afternoon might also be watched for any confirmation of the increasing probability of recession in the Eurozone.
  • Also given the focus on the prospects for a US recession there will likely be more attention than usual on the Chicago Fed and Dallas Fed indicators.
  • The only other notable data release today will be the CBI industrial trends survey. And also from the UK we will see a televised debate on the BBC this evening between the final two in the race to be the next PM - Truss and Sunak - at 21:00BST / 22:00CET.
  • Alongside these data, the market will continue to have one eye on this week's FOMC meeting, with the majority of analysts expecting another 75bp hike. Markets are fully pricing this in with a 10-20% probability of a larger 100bp hike priced.