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MARKET INSIGHT
  • The Eurodollar strip has been reversing some of yesterday's Fed-driven gains, although markets continue to price in around 59bp for the September meeting with the 100bp cumulatively priced in for meetings over the remainder of the year around 3bp higher than yesterday's low but around 8bp below the pre-meeting levels.
  • The other big news this morning was the release of CPI for the German state of NRW which came in at 1.1%M/M. There is no consensus for the state CPI, but the national German print is expected to increase 0.6%M/M (so 1.1%M/M is considerably higher). We will be watching the other regional CPI prints this morning to confirm whether we are likely to see an upside surprise to this afternoon's national print, or whether NRW is an outlier. Most of the market moves will be off the regional data rather than this afternoon's national print.
  • This afternoon, we have the first print of US GDP for Q2 due this afternoon. Powell said yesterday that the US economy doesn't seem to be in recession now but that we are seeing some slowdown in growth and that the slowdown in the second quarter is "notable". The Bloomberg consensus looks for a 0.5% quarterly print, but most economists submitted their expectations before yesterday's durable goods and inventory data, both of which were above expectations and point to upside risks.
  • We are also due to receive US weekly claims data while Banca d'Italia's Visco is due to speak this afternoon and any further comments he makes on BTP-Bund spreads will be watched - particularly in the context of TPI. He has previously said that moves for the 10-year spread above 200bp are not justified by the fundamentals.
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