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What to Watch: More Fed Speak, Tsy Refunding, PMIs, Earnings

MARKET INSIGHT

Tsy futures moderately weaker across the board in lead up to NY open, near overnight lows on decent volumes w/ TYU2 just over 450k at the moment. Curves flatter but off Tue's inverted lows, 2s10s currently -31.649 (-1.193) vs. -35.531 late Tuesday. US Tsy Aug/Sep/Aug refunding annc at 0830ET

  • Fed speaker schedule ramps up after Tue's trifecta of Fed speakers (Daly, Mester, Evans) reminded markets inflation is too high and 75bp hike in Sep not off the table. StL Fed Bullard on CNBC last few minutes echoing Daly and Mester's messaging: Fed job "nowhere near" complete in reining in inflation while needing months of "convincing evidence" that infl has peaked. Additional speakers today:
    • Philly Fed Harker on fintech at 1030ET
    • Richmond Fed Barkin on inflation, Q&A at 1145ET
    • MN Fed Kashkari fireside chat 1430ET: minneapolisfed.org/live
  • Data coming up at 0945ET (prior, est):
    • S&P Global US Services PMI (47.0, 47.0); Composite PMI (47.5, --)
    • Followed by final round of data at 1000ET
    • ISM Services Index (55.3, 53.5)
    • Durable Goods Orders (1.9%, 1.9%); ex-trans (0.3%, 0.3%)
    • Factory Orders (1.6%, 1.2%); ex-trans (1.7%, --)
    • Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (0.5%, --); ship (0.7%, --)
  • Treasury auction: US Tsy $30B 119D bill auction at 1130ET.
  • Cross asset: Stocks mildly higher (SPX eminis +19.0 at 4112.75) as flood of earnings continues, Spot Gold gains +5.25 at 1765.65, modest bounce in Crude (WTI +0.80 at 95.22), eyes on OPEC+ 100k Sep output increase anticipated.
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