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What to Watch: Weekly Claims, Fed Speak, Stock Earnings

MARKET INSIGHT

Short end rates lagging bounce in longer US Tsys (30YY slipped to 2.9357% low) after the BoE raised bank rate by 50bp to 1.75% - the most since 1995 on a 8 to 1 vote (Tenreyro wanted 25bp hike), with Gilt sales starting in Sep. Inside overnight range for Tsys with Bonds off lows, yield curves extended inversion (2s10s down to -38.606, lowest since Sep 2000), all on light volumes: TYU2 only 260k.

  • Data coming up at 0830 (prior, est):
    • Challenger Job Cuts YoY (58.8%, --)
    • Initial Jobless Claims (256k, 260k)
    • Continuing Claims (1.359M, 1.383M)
    • Trade Balance (-$85.5B, -$80.0B)
  • Scheduled Fed speakers
    • Cleveland Fed Mester economic outlook, no text, Q&A at 1200ET
  • Treasury auctions: US Tsy $55B 4W, $50B 8W bill at 1130ET.
  • Cross asset: Stocks mildly higher (SPX eminis +4.25 at 4160.5) as heavy earnings docket continues; Spot Gold surge +17.55 at 1782.84; modest bounce in Crude (WTI +0.47 at 91.13).
  • Currently, 2-Yr yield is up 1.9bps at 3.0836%, 5-Yr is up 0.9bps at 2.8345%, 10-Yr is up 1.5bps at 2.7191%, and 30-Yr is up 2.8bps at 2.9734%.
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