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What to watch

OUTLOOK
  • It will be another busy data day with the focus this morning again on inflation. We will receive French HICP data at 7:45BST / 8:45CET (median 6.7%Y/Y with a larger right-hand tail) ahead of Austrian, Slovenian and Portuguese prints. These all precede the pan-Eurozone print which is due for release at 10:00BST / 11:00CET (simultaneously with the Italian HICP print). The Bloomberg median for the Eurozone headline print looks for 9.0%Y/Y (a tenth higher than the 8.9%Y/Y print seen last month), but there are a number of economists looking in an 8.8-9.2% range. Core CPI has a median of 4.1%Y/Y, but with economists split between 3.9-4.3%Y/Y (from 4.0%Y/Y last month).
  • The inflation print will be important as markets now price in 66bp for next week's ECB meeting (up from Thursday's close of 55bp after a hawkish Reuters sources story and Schnabel Jackson Hole speech) and 163bp by year-end (up from Thursday's close of 131bp).
  • Elsewhere on the data front, the highlights will be this afternoon's MNI Chicago Business Barometer (due at 14:45BST / 15:45CET), the ADP employment report at 13:30BST / 14:30CET (with its new methodology) and Canadian GDP for June (and first print of Q2). Across the morning we will also have final prints of Q2 GDP from a number of Eurozone countries.
  • Today's speakers include the Riksbank's Breman and the Fed's Mester. After European hours we will also hear from the Fed's Logan and Bostic.
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