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MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

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OUTLOOK
  • There has been a lot of ECB speak over the weekend, and mostly with a hawkish tone, and in early trading the Euribor strip has seen a steepening in the White area with Reds and Greens down 6.5 ticks before the curve flattens a little in the Blue area. We are still scheduled to hear from both de Guindos and Schnabel today.
  • The biggest datapoint of the week for global markets will be US CPI which is due for release tomorrow. Markets look for a decline in the Y/Y print from 8.5%Y/Y to 8.0%Y/Y, albeit with core CPI rising from 5.9%Y/Y to 6.1%Y/Y. Markets are currently pricing in almost 73bp for next week's Fed meeting so a downside miss would likely see a a larger market reaction than an upside surprise.
  • It is also a big week for the UK, despite the postponement of the MPC meeting to next week. Tomorrow sees labour market data, Wednesday inflation data, Thursday inflation expectations data and Friday retail sales. This is in addition to this morning's July monthly GDP print, which was marginally softer-than-expected but not enough to really have any influence on monetary policy expectations. Markets currently price 66bp for next week's MPC meeting with a peak of 261bp priced by May 2023.
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