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OUTLOOK
  • The Times reported overnight that PM Sunak will meet Chancellor Hunt today to discuss options over the timing of the Medium Term Fiscal Statement which is currently due 31 October. A delay of a couple of days (to still be ahead of the BOE meeting) is said to be under consideration as well as a more substantive delay further into November to turn the event into a full Budget. The OBR was due to deliver the final forecasts to the Chancellor tomorrow under it's original timeline which would mean that PM Sunak would have almost no time to make any tweaks to Hunt's policies. Given the importance of the fiscal plans, a delay seems very possible. The OBR's original timetable is available here.
  • The BoC is seen hiking another 75bps this afternoon as still stubborn inflation and short-term consumer inflation expectations plus a depreciating CAD help warrant continued aggressive tightening. It’s not a done deal though, especially after BoC surprises this year: recent data have been mixed, including a sharp decline in business sentiment and less sharp fall in business inflation expectations. The market currently prices ~69bps for the meeting. Our base case is for the Bank to indicate further hikes ahead with a hawkish tone whilst trying to maintain optionality for a stepdown in the pace of rate hikes come the December meeting should data warrant it. For the full MNI BoC Preview click here.
  • The market will also continue to look ahead to tomorrow's ECB meeting where a 75bp hike is expected. The full MNI ECB Preview is available here while the MNI Policy team published a story yesterday noting that changes to the TLTRO interest rate were being considered ahead of reserve tiering (full piece available here).
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