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What to watch

OUTLOOK
  • Today we will receive Italian confidence data this morning. The main release of the day will be US durable goods data this afternoon.
  • The most interesting speech of the day is likely to come from the Fed's Jefferson who is dual to discuss inflation and the dual mandate. We will also from BOE's Broadbent and the ECB's de Cos and Lane (although none of those are due to discuss monpol).
  • This week will be a key week, particularly for Eurozone data, as we will receive the next batch of flash inflation prints across the region. The highlights will be French and Spanish HICP data Tuesday, German state CPI data through Wednesday morning with the national print Wednesday afternoon while Thursday will see the release of Italian and pan-Eurozone flash CPI. The market is starting to be concerned that inflation will remain above target for a longer period, and so market pricing by the October ECB meeting ended last week around at 134bp of further hikes (up from 116bp a week earlier). This week's inflation data will be critical in seeing this either pullback or extend further.
  • Elsewhere we still hear from the potential Fed Vice Chair Goolsbee tomorrow in a speech at the Ivy tech Community College. His comments will be closely analyzed by markets. On the datafront in the US, the highlights of the week will be the MNI Chicago PMI tomorrow, the ISM manufacturing on Wednesday and ISM services print on Friday. And we will also have month-end flows.
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