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OUTLOOK
  • The newsflow this morning will remain focused on how policymakers deal with the fallout from the failure of SVB and Signature Bank and whether this is enough to shore up confidence in the banking sector again. It was confirmed at 7:00GMT / 8:00CET that HSBC will takeover the UK operations of SVB and this follows a new Fed funding scheme for deposit taking institutions announced over the weekend (see more here).
  • As part of the fallout, Goldman Sachs has removed its call for a 25bp Fed hike next week (it still expects hikes in May, June and July). STIR markets now price in around 23.5bp for next week's meeting with 51bp priced by June indicating a terminal rate of 5.00-5.25%, and the curve inverting thereafter.
  • Outside of the banking sector it is a busy week with UK labour market data and US CPI due for release tomorrow, the UK Budget due Wednesday and the ECB decision due Thursday.
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