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What to watch

OUTLOOK
  • There isn't too much out of Europe this morning with the exceptions of 30-year gilt and Schatz auctions and a scheduled speech by ECB's Villeroy this morning (the theme isn't monpol though).
  • Instead the attention will be on North American data with Canadian inflation, US retail sales and US IP the main highlights of the upcoming session.
  • In terms of Canadian data, there is still more than two months to the next BoC decision where markets broadly price around a 30% probability of a 25bp hike. Most analysts expect headline CPI to fall to 2.9-3.1%Y.Y. The BoC remains more focused on the three-month run rate of the averages of the median and trim measures which was 3.7% annualized in May (recent statements have noted stickiness in the 3.5-4% range). There is potential for Canadian inflation to have a broader market impact today, given the lack of other key releases.
  • In the US advance retail sales are forecast to increase 0.5%M/M with most analysts in a 0.4-0.7%M/M range while IP is expected to come in flat in June.
  • Again, give then lack of traditional drivers in the macro space today, there will be increased focus in cross market moves (such as equities and oil).

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