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What to Watch: ADP, PMI, Tsy Refunding, FOMC Rate Annc

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys firmer but off overnight highs - buffeted by European inflation data. Tsys gapped higher w/ Bunds (TYH4 tapping 112-02 high, 10Y yield below 4% briefly to 3.9899%) after French inflation data came out lower than expected. Rates scaled back support over the last few hours following an uptick in German regional CPI measures.
  • US Data on tap: ADP private employment data (0815ET), Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement and Employment Cost Index at 0830ET, followed by MNI Chicago PMI at 0945ET.
  • Main focus is on this afternoon's FOMC policy announcement at 1400ET and press conference 30 minutes later. The Federal Reserve will hold rates steady for the 5th time in 6 meetings in January, further cementing expectations that the hiking cycle is over and that the next move will be a cut.
  • Given participants’ pushback against 2024 market rate cut pricing since the December meeting, the main question will be the degree to which the Statement and Chair Powell leave the door open to a rate cut as soon as March.
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