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What to Watch: Back to Data

US TSYS
  • Focus back on key jobs data at the bottom of the hour as default concerns recede after Fiscal Responsibility Act cleared the Senate late Thursday.
  • Bloomberg consensus looks for further moderation in payrolls growth in May with 195k after 253k, but once again watch two-month revisions to see if they continue to unwind prior sizeable “beats”.
  • A large beat would is likely to rekindle expectations over another 25bp hike at the next FOMC on June 14, with chances currently running around 25%.
  • There are no scheduled Fed speakers today, but likely to be some pop-up appearances on the networks before the Fed enters blackout at midnight.
  • Treasury supply: US Tsy $15B 1-Day CMB auction at 1130ET. Markets also watching bill supply following the passage of the debt bill, size of Monday's 13- and 26W bills delayed yesterday due to uncertainty over how long it would take the Senate to clear the debt bill.
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