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What to Watch: Banks, Fed Speak

US TSYS
  • Markets watching another retreat in European banks (Deutsche Bank -12%, Commerzbank -9%) overnight, global rates surge again following persistent worries over bank funding and surge in Foreign and International Monetary Authority repo facility take up to $60B from zero the week prior.
  • Treasury yields are falling (2Y back to mid-Sep'22 levl at 3.5698%), yield curves bull steepening to the least inverted levels since October (2s10s taps -27.677).
  • Projected rate cuts have in turn gained momentum. Fed funds implied hike for May'23 has receded to 6.6bp, followed by projected rate cuts through year end: Jun'23 cumulative -15.6bp to 4.631%, Jul'23 -49.3bp to 4.295%. By year end, Dec'23 cumulative -90.6 at 3.881.
  • Upcoming economic data includes Durables, Cap Goods, PMIs, Fed Speak Resumes with StL Fed Bullard moderated Q&A event at 0930ET.
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