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What to Watch: Dec FOMC Minutes Main Focus

US TSYS
Tsys trading firmer - little off recent session highs, 30YY currently 3.7864% -.0525, w/ yield curves bull flattening for the second consecutive session: 2s10s -1.682 at -65.196). Main focus on the minutes from the Dec'22 FOMC meeting, to be released this afternoon at 1400ET.
  • Expect the minutes to emphasize Powell's message that "we have more work to do", with participants putting greater focus on "how long do we remain restrictive", and "not so important how fast we go".
  • Markets interpreted Powell's press conference comments as mostly dovish, especially on possible 25bp hike in Feb vs Dec's 50bp. One area of focus in the minutes will be the degree to which participants anticipated a further step-down, and what inflation/job conditions would allow that to happen.
  • Otherwise, midmorning data coming up at 1000ET:
    • ISM Employment (48.4, --); ISM Mfg (49.0, 48.5)
    • ISM New Orders (47.2, --); Prices Paid (43.0, 42.9)
    • JOLTS Job Openings (10.334M, 10.025M)
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