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What to Watch: FOMC Today, BOE Tomorrow

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures showing modest gains ahead this afternoon's FOMC policy announcement at 1400ET, a modest unwind after yields climbing to the highest levels since November 2007 (10YY 4.367%, 5Y 4.5205%) yesterday.
  • Traders expect the Fed to keep rates on hold with a tightener bias ahead while the median of analysts’ expectations for the Fed’s September Dot Plot rates suggest that the central expectation is for no changes from June’s projections: 5.6% for 2023, 4.6% for 2024, 3.4% for 2025, with the new entry for 2026 at 2.6%, and the Longer-Run rate at 2.5%.
  • BOE policy announcement tomorrow, while US Rates gained overnight after UK CPI showed headline inflation slowing again: +0.3% M/M, +6.7% Y/Y - the lowest level since February 2022.
  • This morning's sole data point: MBA 30Y conforming mortgage rate gained 4bps back to joint cycle highs at 7.31% in the week to Sep 15, last higher in 2000. Despite that, overall applications increased 5.4% led by a sharp 13% increase for refis (after -5%) while purchase mortgages lagged with 2%.
  • Headline watching: No positive development as yet re: US government funding resolution to avoid a shutdown on October 1.
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