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What to Watch: Headline Employment Report for July

US TSYS
  • Main focus on employment report for July coming up at 0830ET. Median estimate from 72 economists surveyed by Bbg is +200k with a range of 150k-300k (StD 31.27k); Bbg's "whisper" number is slightly higher at +223k.
  • AHE is seen moderating to 0.3% M/M although it doesn’t take much from an unrounded 0.36% M/M, along with no change in average hours worked. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 3.6% but can easily surprise lower from 3.57% with a decent share of analysts expecting such a move.
    Back to summer trade with no data points after NFP, n
  • Back to summer trade with no data points after NFP, no scheduled Fed speakers either. Slow start to next week with the first significant data release next Thursday with CPI and weekly Claims.
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