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What to Watch: June FOMC Minutes, Factory Orders, Durables

US TSYS
  • US back to normal hours after 4th of July holiday, a lot to get through over the next three days.
  • Main focus on June FOMC minutes release this afternoon at 1400ET with attention on degree to which the FOMC was divided over the decision to deliver a “hawkish pause/skip”, and to what degree the communications were crafted in a hawkish direction to appease those who would have preferred to hike at that meeting.
  • Scheduled Fed speak later in the afternoon: NY Fed Williams moderated discussion, CB Research Assn at 1600ET
  • Midmorning data kicks off at 1000ET with Factory Orders, Durables and Cap goods. The balance of the week includes ADP private employment data at 0815 Thu and Jun NFP on Friday at 0830ET (+225k est vs. +339k prior).
  • Treasury auctions resume: $46B 17W bills today at 1130ET followed by $70B 4W and $60B 8W bills tomorrow.
  • Of note, Tsy Sec Yellen will be visiting China Thursday, her first as Tsy Secretary and comes after last month’s visit by Secretary of State Antony Blinken which was designed to roll back tensions with Beijing and open the door for regular cabinet-level talks.

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