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What to Watch: June Jobs

US TSYS
  • The main focus on headline employment data for June this morning at 0830ET, day after ADP's blowout private employment data (ADP +497k vs. 225k est, +267k prior/revised). Strong data underpins market expectations for additional rate hikes by year end.
  • Along with Wednesday’s CPI, it’s the last major release before the Jul 26 FOMC. The first look at Q2 GDP plus the Q2 ECI and monthly PCE data for June all land 1-2days after the decision.
  • Bloomberg consensus sees payrolls growth of 230k in June after May’s large beat of 339k, with the primary dealer survey pointing to modest upside risk. Watch revisions to see whether that pace is maintained.
  • AHE is seen increasing 0.3% M/M for the second month with unusually uniform analyst expectations – a surprise in either direction here should offer a clean read.
  • Fed speak: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will be interviewed on CNBC at 1130ET.
  • Markets also paying attention to Tsy Sec Yellen for more headlines after meeting in Beijing between Chinese Premier Li Qiang earlier.
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