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What to Watch: PMIs, Debt Ceiling, China Trade, Fed Speak Pre Blackout

US TSYS
  • Off overnight highs, Treasury futures have climbed back to early Monday levels, carry-over support following Thursday's sharply lower than expected Philly Fed Mfg Index (-31.3 vs -19.3 est).
  • Friday economic data limited to S&P Global PMIs at 0945ET while the last "scheduled" Fed speaker ahead the midnight policy blackout is Fed Gov Cook commenting on economic research at 1630ET. Fed blackout runs through May 4.
  • Thursday's data revived a projected rate CUT slightly (FF currently imply -31bp in Dec'23 to 4.518%), carry-over short-end support this morning is receding slightly over the last few minutes.
  • Markets will be keeping an eye on any developments in debt ceiling log-jam ahead a GOP package vote next Wednesday or Thursday.
  • Additional focus on US China trade. Bloomberg reported Thursday that President Biden is set to sign an executive order in the coming weeks limiting investment by US companies in key parts of the Chinese economy.

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