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What to Watch: UofM Sentiment, Post-CPI Debate

US TSYS

Tsys paring back a small portion of Thu's post-CPI rally, futures moderately lower on average volumes (TYZ2<325k). Veterans Day holiday sees trading floor closed, but full FI session on Globex. NYSE and NASDAQ open as usual. No scheduled Fed speakers, but UofM publishing sentiment data as usual at 1000ET (prior, estimate):

  • U. of Mich. Sentiment (59.9, 59.5); Current Conditions (65.6, 62.8)
  • U. of Mich. Expectations (56.2, 55.5)
  • U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation (5.0%, 5.1%); 5-10 Yr Inflation (2.9%, 2.9%)
  • Markets still digesting the Oct CPI data: An unexpectedly softer U.S. CPI report for October paints a rosier picture of moderating inflation than is likely the case, Atlanta Fed economist Brent Meyer told MNI.
    • Roughly 60% of the CPI basket is still rising at rates above 5%, and alternative measures of underlying inflation remain "very elevated, reflecting broad-based price pressure," he said.
    • The Median, 16% Trimmed-Mean and Sticky CPI measures all posted increases in the 5% to 7% range, well above core CPI reading of 0.3% for the month or 3.3% on an annualized basis. For more, see MNI Policy main wire at 0514ET.

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