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What to Watch: US CPI for Jan

MARKET INSIGHT
CPI inflation metric for January takes the spotlight this morning (0.6% rev, 0.4%); YoY (7.0%, 7.2%) with a significant upside "miss" showing inflation heating up more than expected will rekindle the 50bp hike at the next FOMC on March 16. See 0758ET and follow up bullet on US CPI Setup.
  • Lead quarterly Eurodollar futures (EDH2) have been reluctant to price in more than appr 50% chance of 50bp hike in March, even as 3M interbank lending benchmark continues to surge higher.
  • Scheduled Fed speakers later this evening at 1900ET: Richmond Fed Barkin (alternate voter '23, hawk), policy response amid pandemic uncertainty, no text. However, expect at least one Fed speaker to pop-up this morning to explain any outsized data read, opinion on policy etc.
  • Up at 0830ET weekly claims (230k est vs. 238k prior and continuing claims (1.615M est vs. 1.628k prior) at 0830ET.
  • Market absorbs final leg of week's Tsy supply $23B 30Y bond sale (912810TD0) at 1300ET
  • President Biden will discuss his admin's efforts "to lower health care costs, including prescription drug costs, for American families" at 1230ET. Pres Biden also set to meet Democratic members of Senate Judiciary Committee to discuss Supreme Court nomination. at 1645ET
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