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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
- Sequential moves remain in focus, especially after notable upward revisions to two of the three major core components in Friday's new seasonally adjusted figures.
- Rent of shelter saw little change but both core services ex shelter and in particular core goods ex used cars were revised higher in the last 2-3 months.
- It left non-shelter core services accelerating to 0.39% M/M in Dec in a move more consistent with Chair Powell at the FOMC Feb 1 presser saying there hasn’t been any sign of disinflation here.
- Meanwhile, core goods prices ex used cars still ticked higher at 0.27% M/M rather than pausing, better reflecting a stalling in the downtrend in the NY Fed’s supply chain pressure gauge. The upward revision of the latter wasn’t enough to offset still large declines in used car prices from pushing outright core goods deflation through Q4, although it averaged -0.17% M/M per month rather than the initially thought -0.41% M/M.
- One finding of note here is that whilst new seasonal factors have pushed Q4 inflation higher and might have continued to do the same in January, the new pattern has also pushed core goods inflation softer in the spring. That could be increasingly important if the Fed is starting to move nearer to pausing its hiking cycle at that point.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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