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What US CPI Beat?

STIR FUTURES
  • Hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds slid as Europe came in on broad risk-off sentiment, falling below levels prior to the US CPI upside surprise.
  • There’s a lack of impetus to challenge the Fed teeing up 50bp hikes at the next couple meetings (51bps Jun, 98bps Jul) before the pace continues to slow with 137bps for Sep and 186bps for Dec.
  • Helped by Bullard (’22) late yesterday saying inflation was hot but not far from expected, 50bp pace a good benchmark for now with 75bp not his base case.


Fed Funds rate implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures for specific meetingsSource: Bloomberg

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