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Wheat Woes Further Add To Food Price Inflation

US
  • Winter-wheat yields for Kansas, the largest producer in the US, are predicted to be far below last year levels, further compounding already rampant wheat prices and food price inflation more generally.
  • Drought sees sample yields from the Wheat Quality Council’s crop tour fall to 39.7 bu/acre from the 2021 sample of 58.1 bu/acre and realised yield of 52 bu/acre, further hindered by the cutting back in use of fertilizer.
  • It comes in line with earlier projected USDA forecasts of 39 bu/acre for Kansas and overall national production at the lowest level since 1963, although from a global perspective could be offset by projections of a record Russia harvest.
  • The US already sees significant food at home inflation, which touched 10.8% Y/Y in April with a weight of 8.2% in the basket (cereals and bakery products 10.3% Y/Y, 1.0% weight).
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